Azerbaijan: 10.2 million population; upper-middle-income economy. Exports: crude oil, natural gas, machinery; imports: machinery, vehicles, food. Presidential republic under President Ilham Aliyev. Retook Nagorno-Karabakh September 2023; Armenian population fled. Oil/gas exporter. Strong Turkey alliance. #99 Big Mac Index.
Computed by SAPA (Sovereign Acquisition Propensity Algorithm). Higher probability = stronger structural fit for Azerbaijan acquiring this target.
This valuation is computed monthly by the WHITEFLAG sovereign asset valuation framework, a five-scenario model that prices nations as transferable enterprise units. See the full methodology for the formulas and data sources. The human-capital, industrial and land bases are blended with the World Bank Changing Wealth of Nations 2020 stock, rescaled onto the framework's computed scale; the resource base uses the computed value alone (CWON and the computed value differ by more than 5x).
Sources: CIA World Factbook, World Bank (population, poverty, economic data), IMF World Economic Outlook (economic classification, trade), The Economist Big Mac Index (PPP comparison), Trading Economics (macroeconomic indicators), Official Government Statistical Agencies