Multi-source intelligence combining GDELT real-time conflict monitoring with Polymarket prediction market data. GDELT provides the base layer of global conflict activity; Polymarket reveals where speculative capital is pricing in uncertainty. The gap between the two highlights unpriced risks.
GDELT monitors global news in real-time, tracking conflict-related events across 250+ sources. We query 5 thematic categories (war/military, sanctions, coups/protests, territorial disputes, nuclear/arms) and attribute articles to countries via entity recognition. Severity levels (CRITICAL, HIGH, ELEVATED, WATCH) are based on 24-hour article volume. Data refreshes hourly from the Cloudflare edge.
Polymarket coverage reflects the degree to which a country's political trajectory features contested outcomes that sophisticated bettors believe have material financial implications. Higher attention doesn't necessarily mean instability; it means uncertainty about outcomes that matter to global capital markets. Coverage is geographically uneven.
CRISIS FOCUS: High GDELT + High Polymarket — active conflict with market pricing. UNPRICED RISK: High GDELT + no Polymarket — real conflict, invisible to markets. DIVERGENCE: High GDELT + low Polymarket — markets underweighting activity. MONITORING: Both moderate. MARKET ONLY: Only Polymarket signal.