Post-Westphalian analysis of detachable cities, platform sovereignty, and network state coalitions. Forward models for what could detach and what new coalitions are viable.
Cities and territories whose economic output, strategic infrastructure, or human capital concentration makes them more valuable as independent entities than as subdivisions of their host state. When a city's Lambda score exceeds its host dependency, detachment becomes an economically rational proposition for both external acquirers and internal independence movements. The forward model applies Lambda (city-to-host value ratio), Separation feasibility, and Sovereign Strata decomposition (Earth/Flow/Cloud asset mix, adapted from Bratton's Stack framework) to score viability. A reference database of 51 historical detachments from 1557 to present validates the model against real-world outcomes.
| City | Host Entity Current sovereign |
Lambda City-to-host value ratio |
Sovereign Strata Earth / Flow / Cloud value mix |
Separation Feasibility of political split |
Viability Overall detachment score |
Phantasmic Cap Net value gain from autonomy |
Data Confidence Source coverage quality |
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The Gale-Shapley algorithm matches state and platform acquirers to detachable cities based on synergy scores. State acquirers are matched by resource complementarity, alliance compatibility, and strategic value. Platform acquirers are matched by regulatory environment, human capital, digital infrastructure, and market access.
| Entity | Host Nation | Year | Type | Outcome | Host Military | Nuclear | Dependency | ||
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Data compiled from academic and institutional sources including SIPRI, ICJ, UN Decolonization Committee, International Crisis Group, World Bank, and GFCI. Historical cases independently sourced; forward analysis uses Lambda-Severance model with Sovereign Strata decomposition (adapted from Bratton's Stack framework). See expanded rows for details.
How vulnerable is each country to foreign platform power it cannot control? Platform Sovereignty Vulnerability (PSV) combines three layers: (1) real platform market share from StatCounter, enterprise adoption, and payment data; (2) foreign vs domestic classification — whether the dominant platforms are headquartered abroad; and (3) sovereign resilience — governance quality, enforcement capacity, and digital sovereignty laws. PSV = foreign platform exposure × (1 − sovereign resilience). Nigeria scores high because foreign platforms dominate and governance is weak. China scores near zero because its domestic platforms replaced foreign ones and the state controls them. Ireland's high foreign presence is offset by EU regulatory power.
PSV measures vulnerability to foreign platform power the state cannot control. Resilience scores governance quality, enforcement capacity, and digital sovereignty laws (higher = more protected). Foreign % shows how much of the platform footprint comes from foreign-headquartered companies. Dominant Platforms lists the most significant platforms operating in each country. Data quality: measured (StatCounter), partial, banned/blocked, modeled.
City-level exposure combines the city's platform infrastructure score (PSI) with the host country's sovereignty vulnerability (PSV) and resilience. City PSI measures how much of the city's economy runs through platform infrastructure. Country PSV and Resilience show the host nation's vulnerability and defensive capacity. Platform Pref. is how attractive the city is to platform acquirers.
Each platform company has different resource priorities (energy, water, fiber, talent, regulatory friendliness). These weights produce unique city rankings — the top 5 cities each platform would most benefit from controlling.
How much physical territory will platforms need? Projected demand for data centers, renewable energy, water, and land at 2027/2030/2035, driven by AI compute growth at ~17.5% CAGR.
Documented cases where platforms have acquired physical territory: data centers, solar farms, chip fabs, launch sites. The extraction ratio measures how much value the platform takes out relative to what it returns to the local population.
Platform sovereignty data from StatCounter Global Stats, TechJury/DataReportal (messaging), BuiltWith (enterprise), BIS Payment Statistics, World Governance Indicators, enforcement evidence compiled from regulatory filings. Legacy PSI from OECD DSTRI, BIS. SEC EDGAR 10-K filings for revenue. PSV methodology: foreign_penetration × (1 − sovereign_resilience).
Multi-entity coalitions of cities, small states, territories, sovereign city-states, and platforms assembled into viable sovereign economies. Each coalition's viability score (0-100) measures how well the group could function as an independent economic unit, computed from 10 dimensions: trade self-sufficiency, resource coverage, financial circuits, human capital, competitive positioning, exit accessibility, climate resilience, defense credibility, geographic coherence, and severance feasibility -- all weighted by mean governance quality.
Click any coalition to expand details: members, sub-scores, platform partnerships, balance sheet, and narrative.
Network state coalitions constructed from 32 data sources including bilateral trade (COMTRADE), governance (WGI), climate (ND-GAIN), financial centers (GFCI), shipping (LSCI), and platform sovereignty data. Greedy heuristic with 50 anchors, grow/prune/dedup optimisation. Section 3C spec. See expanded cards for methodology.
The previous tabs model detachment from the city's perspective — whether a deal is viable for acquirers and whether network state coalitions are self-sustaining. This tab models the residual state: the nation that remains after its major city or cities administratively detach. The 74 detachable cities from Phase 2 sit inside 50 host nations. When London detaches from the UK, the remaining 54 million people still constitute a sovereign state — but one whose fiscal position, skilled workforce, and infrastructure networks have fundamentally changed. The model applies four compounding effects across 25 years: fiscal gap (tax revenue is concentrated in cities disproportionate to their population share), skilled-worker emigration, infrastructure stranding, and transfer-payment contraction. Each row is a non-network nation — a country minus its detached city or cities. The viability score (0–100%) measures the residual state's capacity to function as a sovereign entity. Click any row to see the full decomposition and 4-horizon projections.
Residual state impacts computed from city detachment scores, economic baselines, employment data, military capabilities, governance indicators, GFCI rankings, human capital index, and platform sovereignty data. Brain drain calibrated against post-Soviet (10-25%), Greek crisis (12%), and Venezuelan (15%) reference cases. Fiscal model calibrated: UK minus London = 7-9% residual GDP gap. See Phase 8 spec (Sections 3E.2-3E.7).