Brazil

BRA

Brazil: 215.3 million population; upper-middle-income economy. Exports: raw sugar, soybeans, iron ore; imports: machinery, vehicles, optical instruments. Presidential republic under President Lula (since 2023). BRICS member. Lula return (2023). Amazon deforestation debates. G20 member. Major soy/iron ore/oil exporter. 25.9% poverty; #79 Big Mac Index.

Headline valuation

Enterprise value

$39.07T

Scenario range

$23.14T – $39.57T

Confidence

81.4%

Integration scenario

Contested Integration

Balance sheet

Total assets

$44.87T

Total liabilities

$4.81T

Base enterprise value

$40.06T

Creditor concentration

Risk score (0-100)

18.9

Buyer autonomy

high

Creditor HHI

0.3158

Moderate concentration (HHI=0.32)

Climate & resources

Climate status

CLIMATE_VULNERABLE

Water tier

ABUNDANT

ND-GAIN vulnerability

0.48

ND-GAIN readiness

0.61

Top acquisition targets (Brazil as buyer)

Computed by SAPA (Sovereign Acquisition Propensity Algorithm). Higher probability = stronger structural fit for Brazil acquiring this target.

Saudi Arabia (SAU): probability 0.07, deal value $30.53T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Alliance_Constraint(BRICS) + Distance_Intercontinental(11187km) + Minimal_Projection(11187km) + US_Security_Partner
China (CHN): probability 0.06, deal value $430.90T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Alliance_Constraint(BRICS) + Distance_Hemispheric(16914km) + GDP_Penalty(0.12) + Economic_Size_Block(0.13) + Minimal_Projection(16914km) + UNSC_P5_Protection
India (IND): probability 0.06, deal value $72.03T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Alliance_Constraint(BRICS) + Distance_Hemispheric(14241km) + Minimal_Projection(14241km)
Iran, Islamic Rep. (IRN): probability 0.06, deal value $15.48T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Alliance_Constraint(BRICS) + Distance_Intercontinental(11855km) + Minimal_Projection(11855km)
Russian Federation (RUS): probability 0.06, deal value $60.76T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Alliance_Constraint(BRICS) + Distance_Intercontinental(11178km) + Minimal_Projection(11178km) + UNSC_P5_Protection

About this valuation

This valuation is computed monthly by the WHITEFLAG sovereign asset valuation framework — a five-scenario rigorous model that prices nations as transferable enterprise units. See the full methodology for the formulas and data sources.

Sources: CIA World Factbook, World Bank (population, poverty, economic data), IMF World Economic Outlook (economic classification, trade), The Economist Big Mac Index (PPP comparison), Trading Economics (macroeconomic indicators), Official Government Statistical Agencies

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