Ecuador

ECU

Ecuador: 18.2 million population; upper-middle-income economy. Exports: crude oil, bananas, fish; imports: machinery, vehicles, mineral fuels. Presidential republic under President Daniel Noboa. Security crisis as cartels expanded. State of emergency declared. Dollarized economy. #87 Big Mac Index.

Headline valuation

Enterprise value

$2.19T

Scenario range

$1.56T to $2.22T

Confidence

60.0%

Integration scenario

Contested Integration

Balance sheet

Total assets

$2.39T

Total liabilities

$197.4B

Base enterprise value

$2.19T

Creditor concentration

Risk score (0-100)

28.0

Buyer autonomy

high

Creditor HHI

0.2288

Climate & resources

Climate status

Desperate (Rank 113 of 212, 1 = most desperate)

Water tier

MODERATE

ND-GAIN vulnerability

0.55

ND-GAIN readiness

0.52

Top acquisition targets (Ecuador as buyer)

Computed by SAPA (Sovereign Acquisition Propensity Algorithm). Higher probability = stronger structural fit for Ecuador acquiring this target.

Colombia (COL): probability 0.08, deal value $7.11T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Economic_Size_Penalty(0.27) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(4)
Peru (PER): probability 0.08, deal value $5.82T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Economic_Size_Penalty(0.39) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(4)
Chile (CHL): probability 0.07, deal value $9.62T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Proximal(3787km) + Economic_Size_Block(0.23) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(4)
Japan (JPN): probability 0.07, deal value $114.10T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Political_Risk + Distance_Hemispheric(14432km) + GDP_Block(0.032) + Economic_Size_Block(0.02) + No_Power_Projection + US_Treaty_Ally + Absurdity_Penalty(5)
Argentina (ARG): probability 0.07, deal value $8.29T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Proximal(4357km) + Economic_Size_Block(0.24) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(4)

About this valuation

This valuation is computed monthly by the WHITEFLAG sovereign asset valuation framework, a five-scenario model that prices nations as transferable enterprise units. See the full methodology for the formulas and data sources. The human-capital, industrial, land and resource bases are blended with the World Bank Changing Wealth of Nations 2020 stock, rescaled onto the framework's computed scale.

Sources: CIA World Factbook, World Bank (population, poverty, economic data), IMF World Economic Outlook (economic classification, trade), The Economist Big Mac Index (PPP comparison), Trading Economics (macroeconomic indicators), Official Government Statistical Agencies

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