WHITEFLAG

Sovereign Asset Re-Optimization Portal

Guatemala

GTM

Guatemala: 17.6 million population; lower-middle-income economy. Exports: sugar, coffee, bananas; imports: machinery, mineral fuels, vehicles. Presidential republic under President Ar. 59.3% poverty; #106 Big Mac Index.

Headline valuation

Enterprise value
$1.51T
Scenario range
$1.14T to $1.54T
Confidence
60.0%
Integration scenario
Contested Integration

Balance sheet

Total assets
$1.68T
Total liabilities
$164.4B
Base enterprise value
$1.51T

Creditor concentration

Risk score (0-100)
27.8
Buyer autonomy
high
Creditor HHI
0.3942

Climate & resources

Climate status
Desperate (Rank 63 of 212, 1 = most desperate)
Water tier
MODERATE
ND-GAIN vulnerability
0.63
ND-GAIN readiness
0.42

Top acquisition targets (Guatemala as buyer)

Computed by SAPA (Sovereign Acquisition Propensity Algorithm). Higher probability = stronger structural fit for Guatemala acquiring this target.

  1. Jamaica (JAM): probability 0.07, deal value $593.8B, driver: Strategic + Resources + No_Power_Projection
  2. Ecuador (ECU): probability 0.07, deal value $2.00T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Proximal(2115km) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(4)
  3. Colombia (COL): probability 0.07, deal value $7.01T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Proximal(2117km) + Economic_Size_Block(0.16) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(4)
  4. Cuba (CUB): probability 0.07, deal value $358.1B, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + No_Power_Projection
  5. Japan (JPN): probability 0.07, deal value $112.40T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Political_Risk + Distance_Hemispheric(12319km) + GDP_Block(0.029) + Economic_Size_Block(0.01) + No_Power_Projection + US_Treaty_Ally + Absurdity_Penalty(5)

About this valuation

This valuation is computed monthly by the WHITEFLAG sovereign asset valuation framework, a five-scenario model that prices nations as transferable enterprise units. See the full methodology for the formulas and data sources. The human-capital, industrial, land and resource bases are blended with the World Bank Changing Wealth of Nations 2020 stock, rescaled onto the framework's computed scale.

Sources: CIA World Factbook, World Bank (population, poverty, economic data), IMF World Economic Outlook (economic classification, trade), The Economist Big Mac Index (PPP comparison), Trading Economics (macroeconomic indicators), Official Government Statistical Agencies

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