Sri Lanka
LKA
Sri Lanka: 22.2 million population; lower-middle-income economy. Exports: tea, clothing, precious stones; imports: machinery, mineral fuels, vehicles. Presidential republic under President Anura Kumara Dissanayake. Defaulted on external debt April 2022. IMF program secured. Debt restructuring ongoing with China as major creditor. #108 Big Mac Index.
Headline valuation
Scenario range
$800.7B to $984.3B
Integration scenario
Contested Integration
Balance sheet
Total liabilities
$203.0B
Base enterprise value
$965.0B
Creditor concentration
- Moderate concentration (HHI=0.35)
- China dominance (55.0%)
- Moderate collateral advantage (2.0×)
Climate & resources
Climate status
Desperate (Rank 96 of 212, 1 = most desperate)
ND-GAIN vulnerability
0.62
Top acquisition targets (Sri Lanka as buyer)
Computed by SAPA (Sovereign Acquisition Propensity Algorithm). Higher probability = stronger structural fit for Sri Lanka acquiring this target.
- Malaysia (MYS): probability 0.08, deal value $7.76T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Proximal(2454km) + Economic_Size_Block(0.11) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(4)
- Oman (OMN): probability 0.07, deal value $1.19T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Proximal(2932km) + No_Power_Projection
- Qatar (QAT): probability 0.07, deal value $5.21T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Proximal(3637km) + Economic_Size_Block(0.16) + No_Power_Projection + US_Security_Partner
- Lao PDR (LAO): probability 0.07, deal value $105.2B, driver: Strategic + Resources + Distance_Proximal(2742km) + No_Power_Projection + Captor_Interest(CHN)
- TWN (TWN): probability 0.07, deal value $31.31T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Proximal(4810km) + Economic_Size_Block(0.03) + No_Power_Projection + US_Ambiguous_Commitment
About this valuation
This valuation is computed monthly by the WHITEFLAG sovereign asset valuation framework, a five-scenario model
that prices nations as transferable enterprise units. See the
full methodology for the formulas and data sources.
The human-capital, industrial and land bases are blended with the World Bank Changing Wealth of Nations 2020 stock, rescaled onto the framework's computed scale; the resource base uses the computed value alone (CWON has no value).
Sources: CIA World Factbook, World Bank (population, poverty, economic data), IMF World Economic Outlook (economic classification, trade), The Economist Big Mac Index (PPP comparison), Trading Economics (macroeconomic indicators), Official Government Statistical Agencies