Sri Lanka

LKA

Sri Lanka: 22.2 million population; lower-middle-income economy. Exports: tea, clothing, precious stones; imports: machinery, mineral fuels, vehicles. Presidential republic under President Anura Kumara Dissanayake. Defaulted on external debt April 2022. IMF program secured. Debt restructuring ongoing with China as major creditor. #108 Big Mac Index.

Headline valuation

Enterprise value

$1.06T

Scenario range

$434.8B – $1.08T

Confidence

79.6%

Integration scenario

Contested Integration

Balance sheet

Total assets

$1.21T

Total liabilities

$114.7B

Base enterprise value

$1.10T

Creditor concentration

Risk score (0-100)

52.5

Buyer autonomy

medium

Creditor HHI

0.3450

Moderate concentration (HHI=0.35)
China dominance (55.0%)
Moderate collateral advantage (2.0×)

Climate & resources

Climate status

CLIMATE_DESPERATE

Water tier

MODERATE

ND-GAIN vulnerability

0.62

ND-GAIN readiness

0.54

Top acquisition targets (Sri Lanka as buyer)

Computed by SAPA (Sovereign Acquisition Propensity Algorithm). Higher probability = stronger structural fit for Sri Lanka acquiring this target.

Angola (AGO): probability 0.07, deal value $1.09T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Distance_Regional(7586km) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(5)
Argentina (ARG): probability 0.07, deal value $10.97T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Hemispheric(14756km) + GDP_Penalty(0.13) + Economic_Size_Block(0.12) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(5)
Bolivia (BOL): probability 0.07, deal value $796.8B, driver: Strategic + Resources + Distance_Hemispheric(16224km) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(4)
Chile (CHL): probability 0.07, deal value $9.71T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Hemispheric(15781km) + Economic_Size_Block(0.13) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(5)
Congo, Rep. (COG): probability 0.07, deal value $567.7B, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Regional(7275km) + No_Power_Projection + Captor_Defense(FRA)

About this valuation

This valuation is computed monthly by the WHITEFLAG sovereign asset valuation framework — a five-scenario rigorous model that prices nations as transferable enterprise units. See the full methodology for the formulas and data sources.

Sources: CIA World Factbook, World Bank (population, poverty, economic data), IMF World Economic Outlook (economic classification, trade), The Economist Big Mac Index (PPP comparison), Trading Economics (macroeconomic indicators), Official Government Statistical Agencies

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