WHITEFLAG

Sovereign Asset Re-Optimization Portal

Chad

TCD

Chad: 18.4 million population; low-income economy. Exports: crude oil, cotton, livestock; imports: machinery, mineral fuels, food. Presidential republic under President Mahamat Deby Itno. Military transition after Deby assassination (2021). French presence. Central to Sahel counterterrorism. 43.3% poverty; #132 Big Mac Index.

Headline valuation

Enterprise value
$61.1B
Scenario range
$46.5B to $66.1B
Confidence
60.0%
Integration scenario
Contested Integration

Balance sheet

Total assets
$99.5B
Total liabilities
$38.4B
Base enterprise value
$61.1B

Creditor concentration

Risk score (0-100)
34.1
Buyer autonomy
high
Creditor HHI
0.2055

Climate & resources

Climate status
Desperate (Rank 5 of 212, 1 = most desperate)
Water tier
MODERATE
ND-GAIN vulnerability
0.75
ND-GAIN readiness
0.26

Top acquisition targets (Chad as buyer)

Computed by SAPA (Sovereign Acquisition Propensity Algorithm). Higher probability = stronger structural fit for Chad acquiring this target.

  1. Gabon (GAB): probability 0.08, deal value $357.7B, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Buyer_Governance(0.28) + Buyer_Volatility(0.86) + Economic_Size_Block(0.22) + No_Power_Projection + Captor_Interest(FRA)
  2. Congo, Rep. (COG): probability 0.08, deal value $297.8B, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Buyer_Governance(0.28) + Buyer_Volatility(0.86) + Economic_Size_Penalty(0.26) + No_Power_Projection + Captor_Interest(FRA)
  3. Ghana (GHA): probability 0.08, deal value $1.47T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Buyer_Governance(0.28) + Buyer_Volatility(0.86) + Economic_Size_Block(0.08) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(4)
  4. Qatar (QAT): probability 0.08, deal value $5.31T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Proximal(4094km) + Buyer_Governance(0.28) + Buyer_Volatility(0.86) + GDP_Penalty(0.12) + Economic_Size_Block(0.02) + No_Power_Projection + US_Security_Partner
  5. Nigeria (NGA): probability 0.07, deal value $5.28T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Buyer_Governance(0.28) + Buyer_Volatility(0.86) + Population_Disadvantage(0.09) + GDP_Penalty(0.07) + Economic_Size_Block(0.02) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(4)

About this valuation

This valuation is computed monthly by the WHITEFLAG sovereign asset valuation framework, a five-scenario model that prices nations as transferable enterprise units. See the full methodology for the formulas and data sources. The industrial base is blended with the World Bank Changing Wealth of Nations 2020 stock, rescaled onto the framework's computed scale; the human-capital base uses the computed value alone (CWON and the computed value differ by more than 5x); the land base uses the computed value alone (CWON and the computed value differ by more than 5x); the resource base uses the computed value alone (CWON and the computed value differ by more than 5x).

Sources: CIA World Factbook, World Bank (population, poverty, economic data), IMF World Economic Outlook (economic classification, trade), The Economist Big Mac Index (PPP comparison), Trading Economics (macroeconomic indicators), Official Government Statistical Agencies

← View Chad on the interactive globe