WHITEFLAG

Sovereign Asset Re-Optimization Portal

Turkmenistan

TKM

Turkmenistan: 6.4 million population; upper-middle-income economy. Exports: mineral fuels, chemicals, machinery; imports: machinery, vehicles, food. Presidential autocracy under President Serdar Berdimuhamedov. #119 Big Mac Index.

Headline valuation

Enterprise value
$905.8B
Scenario range
$847.0B to $922.0B
Confidence
60.0%
Integration scenario
Contested Integration

Balance sheet

Total assets
$989.2B
Total liabilities
$83.4B
Base enterprise value
$905.8B

Creditor concentration

Risk score (0-100)
24.6
Buyer autonomy
high
Creditor HHI
0.2856

Climate & resources

Climate status
Desperate (Rank 66 of 212, 1 = most desperate)
Water tier
CRITICAL
ND-GAIN vulnerability
0.61
ND-GAIN readiness
0.42

Top acquisition targets (Turkmenistan as buyer)

Computed by SAPA (Sovereign Acquisition Propensity Algorithm). Higher probability = stronger structural fit for Turkmenistan acquiring this target.

  1. Malaysia (MYS): probability 0.09, deal value $7.75T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Water_Arbitrage + Distance_Regional(5856km) + Buyer_Governance(0.29) + Economic_Size_Block(0.14) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(5)
  2. Qatar (QAT): probability 0.08, deal value $5.30T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Buyer_Governance(0.29) + Economic_Size_Block(0.20) + No_Power_Projection + US_Security_Partner
  3. Kuwait (KWT): probability 0.08, deal value $3.09T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Buyer_Governance(0.29) + Economic_Size_Penalty(0.32) + No_Power_Projection + US_Security_Partner
  4. Kazakhstan (KAZ): probability 0.08, deal value $4.37T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Buyer_Governance(0.29) + Economic_Size_Block(0.23) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(4)
  5. Brazil (BRA): probability 0.08, deal value $28.24T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Water_Arbitrage + Distance_Hemispheric(12493km) + Buyer_Governance(0.29) + Population_Penalty(0.036) + GDP_Block(0.032) + Economic_Size_Block(0.03) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(5)

About this valuation

This valuation is computed monthly by the WHITEFLAG sovereign asset valuation framework, a five-scenario model that prices nations as transferable enterprise units. See the full methodology for the formulas and data sources. The asset bases are computed by the framework; this entity is not in the World Bank Changing Wealth of Nations accounts.

Sources: CIA World Factbook, World Bank (population, poverty, economic data), IMF World Economic Outlook (economic classification, trade), The Economist Big Mac Index (PPP comparison), Trading Economics (macroeconomic indicators), Official Government Statistical Agencies

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