WHITEFLAG

Sovereign Asset Re-Optimization Portal

Tanzania

TZA

Tanzania: 63.6 million population; lower-middle-income economy. Exports: mineral fuels, machinery, minerals; imports: machinery, mineral fuels, food. Presidential republic under President Samia Suluhu Hassan. Samia opening economy after Magufuli. Major offshore gas reserves. Stable regionally. 26.4% poverty; #130 Big Mac Index.

Headline valuation

Enterprise value
$1.23T
Scenario range
$1.02T to $1.25T
Confidence
60.0%
Integration scenario
Contested Integration

Balance sheet

Total assets
$1.37T
Total liabilities
$144.0B
Base enterprise value
$1.23T

Creditor concentration

Risk score (0-100)
22.7
Buyer autonomy
high
Creditor HHI
0.2721

Climate & resources

Climate status
Desperate (Rank 52 of 212, 1 = most desperate)
Water tier
MODERATE
ND-GAIN vulnerability
0.65
ND-GAIN readiness
0.40

Top acquisition targets (Tanzania as buyer)

Computed by SAPA (Sovereign Acquisition Propensity Algorithm). Higher probability = stronger structural fit for Tanzania acquiring this target.

  1. Zambia (ZMB): probability 0.08, deal value $419.1B, driver: Strategic + Resources + No_Power_Projection + Captor_Interest(CHN)
  2. Congo, Rep. (COG): probability 0.07, deal value $295.7B, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Proximal(2277km) + No_Power_Projection + Captor_Interest(FRA)
  3. Qatar (QAT): probability 0.07, deal value $5.21T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Proximal(3893km) + Economic_Size_Block(0.20) + No_Power_Projection + US_Security_Partner
  4. Oman (OMN): probability 0.07, deal value $1.19T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Proximal(4138km) + No_Power_Projection
  5. Angola (AGO): probability 0.07, deal value $824.9B, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Proximal(2497km) + No_Power_Projection + Absurdity_Penalty(4)

About this valuation

This valuation is computed monthly by the WHITEFLAG sovereign asset valuation framework, a five-scenario model that prices nations as transferable enterprise units. See the full methodology for the formulas and data sources. The human-capital, industrial, land and resource bases are blended with the World Bank Changing Wealth of Nations 2020 stock, rescaled onto the framework's computed scale.

Sources: CIA World Factbook, World Bank (population, poverty, economic data), IMF World Economic Outlook (economic classification, trade), The Economist Big Mac Index (PPP comparison), Trading Economics (macroeconomic indicators), Official Government Statistical Agencies

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