WHITEFLAG

Sovereign Asset Re-Optimization Portal

Uganda

UGA

Uganda: 48.8 million population; lower-middle-income economy. Exports: mineral fuels, machinery; imports: machinery, mineral fuels, vehicles. Presidential republic under President Yoweri Museveni. Museveni rule since 1986. Anti-homosexuality law (2023) triggered sanctions. Oil production starting. 41.7% poverty; #128 Big Mac Index.

Headline valuation

Enterprise value
$528.3B
Scenario range
$399.5B to $542.6B
Confidence
60.0%
Integration scenario
Contested Integration

Balance sheet

Total assets
$643.9B
Total liabilities
$115.6B
Base enterprise value
$528.3B

Creditor concentration

Risk score (0-100)
23.6
Buyer autonomy
high
Creditor HHI
0.1940

Climate & resources

Climate status
Desperate (Rank 62 of 212, 1 = most desperate)
Water tier
MODERATE
ND-GAIN vulnerability
0.63
ND-GAIN readiness
0.42

Top acquisition targets (Uganda as buyer)

Computed by SAPA (Sovereign Acquisition Propensity Algorithm). Higher probability = stronger structural fit for Uganda acquiring this target.

  1. Tanzania (TZA): probability 0.08, deal value $1.12T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Buyer_Volatility(0.70) + No_Power_Projection
  2. Zambia (ZMB): probability 0.08, deal value $422.2B, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Buyer_Volatility(0.70) + No_Power_Projection + Captor_Interest(CHN)
  3. Congo, Rep. (COG): probability 0.08, deal value $298.2B, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Buyer_Volatility(0.70) + No_Power_Projection + Captor_Interest(FRA)
  4. Qatar (QAT): probability 0.07, deal value $5.21T, driver: Strategic + Resources + Human_Capital + Distance_Proximal(3443km) + Buyer_Volatility(0.70) + Economic_Size_Block(0.11) + No_Power_Projection + US_Security_Partner
  5. Gabon (GAB): probability 0.07, deal value $358.1B, driver: Strategic + Resources + Distance_Proximal(2571km) + Buyer_Volatility(0.70) + No_Power_Projection + Captor_Interest(FRA)

About this valuation

This valuation is computed monthly by the WHITEFLAG sovereign asset valuation framework, a five-scenario model that prices nations as transferable enterprise units. See the full methodology for the formulas and data sources. The human-capital, industrial and land bases are blended with the World Bank Changing Wealth of Nations 2020 stock, rescaled onto the framework's computed scale; the resource base uses the computed value alone (CWON's oil component is null).

Sources: CIA World Factbook, World Bank (population, poverty, economic data), IMF World Economic Outlook (economic classification, trade), The Economist Big Mac Index (PPP comparison), Trading Economics (macroeconomic indicators), Official Government Statistical Agencies

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